"NetBeans is likely to continue to gain market share at the expense of Eclipse. It's starting from further behind and has more room to grow. (Sun's relentless pushing of NetBeans along with the JDK downloads doesn't hurt either.) By the end of the year, the two IDEs will probably split the market, with each taking half.
Meanwhile, satisfied IntelliJ IDEA users will continue to wonder what all the fuss is about, confident in their belief that it's the best Java IDE available. However, most users won't be able to see beyond its $500 price tag, and thus its market share will continue to hover at around 5%."
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